📢 Check out HashKey Global Weekly Report (1st Week of Jun) 🌟 Highlights – Nonfarm Payrolls out of expectation – US BTC spot ETF recorded net inflows for 19 days – European Central Bank announced ratecut 25b.p. 📅 Upcoming US CPI data will be announced this coming Wednesday. Investors should pay attention to the market risks. 🔍 For a deeper dive, join our Discord community for the full report 👉
Abstract
Last week, the focus was on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. Bitcoin prices continued to rise from Monday to Thursday, reaching a highest level of $72,000, which is only about 2.5% away from the historical high. The US Bitcoin spot ETF also performed well. It recorded net inflows for 5 days last week, and reached net inflows of 880 million and 480 million dollars on Tuesday and Wednesday. And as of Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed that the number of new jobs in May reached 272,000, far exceeding market expectations (182,000). This week, the market focus will be on the US CPI data release on Wednesday, June 12 as well as the FOMC meeting on the same day.
US Regulation
Last week, the US Bankers Association, the Banking Policy Institute, the Financial Services Forum, and the Securities Industry and Financial Market Association jointly urged President Biden to invalidate SAB 121 and restore balance to the financial system.
On the 5th of last week, SEC Chairperson Gary Gensler told CNBC that the next steps for the SEC to approve the Ethereum Spot ETF will take some time, indicating that the approval process for the S-1 registration statement may be slow. Another day later, Gensler told Reuters that the formal approval of the Ethereum Spot ETF will depend on how quickly publishers respond to SEC comments, indicating that the SEC may not delay the approval of the S-1 document as some have feared.
US Bitcoin Spot ETF
Last week, the US Bitcoin Spot ETF performed well, with 19 consecutive days of net inflows, with an average daily net inflow of more than $100 million. On Tuesday and Wednesday, it reached a net inflow of $880 million and $480 million. Reflecting the optimistic market sentiment, Bitcoin is expected to break through new highs. Although Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report affected the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations, the Bitcoin Spot ETF still recorded an inflow of $130 million. The GBTC of Grayscale recorded a slight net outflow for two consecutive days on Thursday and Friday, with an average of about $30 million per day.
Macroeconomics
On June 6, the European Central Bank announced its latest interest rate decision for June, deciding to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2019, becoming the second central bank in a G7 member country to start a rate cut after Canada. The ECB stressed that while it is time to relax Monetary Policy appropriately, it will not make any pre-commitment to a specific interest rate path.
On June 7, the US released the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report. The number of Nonfarm Payrolls surged 272,000 in May, far exceeding expectations (182,000). Although the unemployment rate also rose by 4%, the surge in employment and wage growth showed that the US job market was still hot. The market believes that the first time the Federal Reserve ratecut may be delayed. That night, Bitcoin fell about 4.8% from a high of $72,000 to $68,400, and then rebounded to the level of $69,200.
Source: Investing.com
Market Information
On June 4, David Krause, a finance professor at Marquette University in Milwaukee, said that the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB), which manages more than $156 billion and whose retirement funds are rated as among the most fiscally sound in the US, has purchased Bitcoin spot ETFs. Krause said that SWIB’s investment in Bitcoin ETFs represents only about 0.1% of its total Assets Under Management. This investment is just the starting point and he expects SWIB to increase this amount and attract other institutions to enter the market. The news shocked the entire investment industry, as large institutions, especially pension funds, typically do not invest in fledgling ETFs like Bitcoin spot ETFs, especially since the state’s investment board has been at the forefront.
On June 4, Bitpanda, a comprehensive asset management platform for tradable cryptocurrencies, stocks, ETFs, and other assets, announced that it has partnered with Deutsche Bank, one of the largest banks in Europe, to provide users with a cryptocurrency trading platform with real-time fiat payment services. In addition, Bitpanda will also be allowed to use the API to provide Bitpanda users with an International Bank Account Number (IBAN) for cross-border deposits and withdrawals.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin daily chart, a trend line that started in March, once again formed a resistance position that prevented the Bitcoin price from breaking through last week. The key lies in the Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday. If the data is positive for risk assets, it is believed that it will break through the trend line (resistance). Unfortunately, the data is unfavorable to Bitcoin, causing Bitcoin to pull back for a short time. And this Wednesday there will be another important data release, they are CPI data and FOMC meeting. If the data is positive, Bitcoin price will challenge the resistance level of the trendline again at $70,965. On the contrary, if the data is negative, the support level of Bitcoin price will be between $69,282 and $67,474. The market may suffer in violent fluctuations on that day, and investors should pay attention to the market risks.
Source: Tradinview.com
Conclusion
After last week’s key Nonfarm Payrolls report, Bitcoin failed to challenge the record high, which shows that the macro economy is still the factor that dominates the direction of the crypto market. This Wednesday will be another key day, with US CPI data and the FOMC meeting respectively. Bitcoin prices may fluctuate violently, and investors should pay attention to the market risks.
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